How We Think
These topics, which are largely excerpted from client letters dating back to our 2001 inception, provide insight into our philosophy and the key tenets that have consistently underpinned our investment approach, which has remained unchanged since our founding. These ideas and concepts are not all-encompassing but do provide a sense of “how we think” and our application of our investing philosophy.
We value a business by projecting its future cash flows and discounting these “owner earnings” into present value dollars. We will invest in a company only if it is trading at a significant discount to this conservative estimate of intrinsic value, which serves to both prevent permanent capital loss when we make mistakes and also provide outsized returns when we are correct.
Emerging Market Bottlers
One of the key characteristics that we prize with bottlers is the underlying reliability and predictability of their earnings. In past economic downturns, the performance of these businesses was particularly resilient, as consumer demand for their goods was income inelastic,…Read More
Competitive Advantages, Growth, Economic Resilience, and Strong Balance Sheets
We have written in the past about how we consider the relationship between price paid for and expected returns from an investment to be a “law” of investing: the higher the price one pays for a stock, the lower long-term…Read More
Where We Are Looking For Value
Previously, we shared the year-to-date results for several international indices and discussed how short-term volatility creates opportunities that we work to exploit. Longer-term returns for this group of indices are even more interesting. This chart shows their performance against the…Read More
Undiscovered and Unloved
The stock market is generally efficient, and the prices of individual stocks trend towards the underlying intrinsic values of their respective businesses. As value investors, we rely on this efficiency – we expect that temporarily mispriced businesses will eventually be…Read More
Recency Bias, Global Interest Rates, and Return Expectations
Evolution has rewarded humans (and animals in general) for recency bias. For example, if one of our ancestors found food down a certain path one day, that was probably a good place for him to look again the next day. …Read More
What to Build (or Buy) in Today’s Opportunity Set
Capital Investment Decisions: When making the decision to prospect for oil by drilling a well, one must estimate the likely cost of extracting the oil and compare that to one’s expectation of the market price of oil over the useful…Read More